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Old Accessory Conversion

Is converting 3 old accessories plus materials into a normal one at 30% worth it? Enter your server's market prices. See the expected cost. Try your luck in the simulator.

Market prices (M = million Noah · 1 GB = 100 M)
The pick is only a label. Materials and the 30% rate are the same for every old accessory.
1 conversion attempt = 3× old accessory + 50× Scrap of Steel + 5× Nest Scrap + 1× Soft Stone. Success chance 30%; on failure all materials are lost.
Cost analysis
Anvil simulator
Every attempt is independent, success chance 30%
No attempts yet.
Check the prices, hit the anvil — the result shows here.
Total result
How does this math work?

Expected value (EV) is the long-run average return of one attempt. Simple: 30% of the normal accessory price minus the material cost of one attempt. If EV is positive, converting wins over many attempts. If it's negative, buying the accessory ready-made is cheaper.

Break-even price is the attempt cost divided by 0.30. If the normal accessory is above that on the market, convert. Below it, buy. The same number is "the expected total cost of producing 1 accessory".

30% means one hit in three attempts on average. But streaks of failure are normal. Plan your budget for 5-6 attempts, not one. The 100× button in the simulator shows well how much luck can swing.

Notes
  • Prices vary a lot between servers. Check current market prices before calculating.
  • Scrap of Steel usually sells in stacks. Enter the per-piece price here.
  • If EV is near zero, ask whether it's worth the hassle. A small plus doesn't offset a big risk.
  • ₺ values come from the chosen server's current GB rate. Informational only.

One attempt needs 3 old accessories, 50 Scrap of Steel, 5 Nest Scrap and 1 Soft Stone. It succeeds 30% of the time and gives 1 normal accessory. On failure all four are lost. Rate and materials are the same for every old accessory.

No. EV is the average over many attempts. A single attempt either gives the accessory or burns the materials. Even with a positive EV, 5-6 failures in a row are normal. Don't take EV as guaranteed profit; it shows the direction in the long run.

On average 1 ÷ 0.30 ≈ 3.3 attempts. But that's only the average. The chance of all 10 attempts failing is still about 2.8%. If you're buying materials in bulk, get one or two attempts above the average. Safer.

The simulator isn't connected to the game server. It generates random attempts in your browser at a fixed 30%. So it's not a copy of the real anvil. But it runs on the same probability; it gives a realistic feel for "what happens to me over 100 attempts". It spends no real money or items.