BUS rates, step by step
| Step | BUS | BUS + Trina | Average items (BUS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 → +2 | 100% | 100% | 1 |
| +2 → +3 | 100% | 100% | 1 |
| +3 → +4 | 70% | 100% | 1.4 |
| +4 → +5 | 70% | 100% | 1.4 |
| +5 → +6 | 60% | 70% | 1.7 |
| +6 → +7 | 30% | 40% | 3.3 |
| +7 → +8 | 5% | 15% | 20 |
| +8 → +9 | 2% | 6% | 50 |
| +9 → +10 | 1% | 3% | 100 |
Every attempt costs a 10,000 Noah anvil fee; the fee is the same whatever the rate.
The first two steps are free, the wall starts at +7
Up to +3 you lose nothing. The first two steps are 100%, the item doesn't burn.
Losses start after +3. The chance of taking an item from +1 to +7 in one go is 8.8%. So you spend 11 items on average. With Trina the chance is 28%, 3.6 items on average.
After +7 the chance drops fast: +7 to +8 is 5%, +8 to +9 is 2%, +9 to +10 is 1%. For one +10 you burn 100 +9 items on average.
Chance of reaching the target with a single item
| Route | Chance | Average items |
|---|---|---|
| +1 to +7, BUS | 8.8% | 11 |
| +1 to +7, BUS + Trina | 28% | 3.6 |
| +1 to +8, BUS | 0.44% | 227 |
| +1 to +9, BUS | 0.0088% | 11,338 |
| +1 to +9, BUS + Trina | 0.25% | 397 |
| +7 to +10, BUS + Trina | 0.027% | 3,704 |
The product of the steps. Average item count is 1 divided by the chance.
The Reverse route
- Take the item to at least +7 with BUS. The Reverse Scroll wants a normal item at +7 or above, it doesn't accept lower.
- Cast the
Reverse Scroll. This step is 100%. A +7 item becomes +1 Reverse, +8 becomes +5 Reverse, +9 becomes +11 Reverse, +10 becomes +21 Reverse. The power stays the same.
- Now you have a Reverse item. From here on you use the
Reverse Item Strengthen Scroll, not BUS.
Tears of Karivdis plays the part of Trina in Reverse.
Reverse doesn't raise the rate
In Reverse every step has the same chance as the normal step it matches. +7 = +1 Reverse, +8 = +5 Reverse, +9 = +11 Reverse, +10 = +21 Reverse.
Every step from +1 to +5 Reverse is 5% like +7 to +8. Every step from +5 to +11 Reverse is 2% like +8 to +9. Every step from +11 to +21 Reverse is 1% like +9 to +10. Karivdis, like Trina, makes them 15%, 6% and 3%.
Reverse rates
| Step | Reverse | Reverse + Karivdis | Normal equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 → +5 Reverse, every step | 5% | 15% | +7 → +8 |
| +5 → +11 Reverse, every step | 2% | 6% | +8 → +9 |
| +11 → +21 Reverse, every step | 1% | 3% | +9 → +10 |
The chance of going from +20 Reverse to +21 Reverse is the same as +9 to +10: 1%, 3% with Karivdis.
Where you should stop
- For an item you'll use daily, +7 is a reasonable stop. Getting there takes 11 items on average, 3.6 with Trina.
- If you're aiming for +8, take a single step from +7, 5%. Add Trina and it's 15%.
- Reverse steps are not easier than normal steps. Each Reverse step is as hard as the normal step it matches, and there are more steps in between.
- The plus of Reverse is the steps in between: a +3 Reverse item is stronger than +7 and weaker than +8. A burned item is gone in Reverse too.