BUS rates, step by step
| Step | BUS | BUS + Trina | Average items (BUS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 → +2 | 100% | 100% | 1 |
| +2 → +3 | 100% | 100% | 1 |
| +3 → +4 | 100% | 100% | 1 |
| +4 → +5 | 75% | 100% | 1.3 |
| +5 → +6 | 55% | 70% | 1.8 |
| +6 → +7 | 30% | 50% | 3.3 |
| +7 → +8 | 10% | 30% | 10 |
| +8 → +9 | 1% | 2% | 100 |
| +9 → +10 | 0% | 0% | no step |
Rates are from the game's own upgrade table. Every attempt costs a 10,000 Noah anvil fee; the fee is the same whatever the rate.
The first three steps are free, the wall starts at +8
Up to +4 you lose nothing. All three steps are 100%, the item doesn't burn.
Losses start after +4. The chance of taking an item from +1 to +7 in one go is 12.4%. So you spend 8 items on average.
+7 to +8 is a single step at 10%. Still reasonable up to here. The real wall is after +8: +8 to +9 is 1%. You burn 100 +8 items on average.
There is no step from +9 to +10. The table says zero, the attempt isn't made.
Chance of reaching the target with a single item
| Route | Chance | Average items |
|---|---|---|
| +1 to +7, BUS | 12.4% | 8 |
| +1 to +7, BUS + Trina | 35% | 3 |
| +1 to +8, BUS | 1.24% | 81 |
| +1 to +9, BUS | 0.01% | 8,081 |
| +1 to +9, BUS + Trina | 0.21% | 476 |
The product of the steps. Average item count is 1 divided by the chance.
Above +9: the Reverse route
- Take the item to +7 with BUS. The Reverse Scroll wants a normal item at +7 or above, it doesn't accept lower.
- Cast the Reverse Scroll. This step is 100%, there's no such thing as the conversion failing. Just the 10,000 Noah anvil fee.
- Now you have a Reverse item. From here on you use the Reverse Item Strengthen Scroll, not BUS.
- If you want to raise the rate, add Tears of Karivdis. But don't add it below +5, I explain below.
Reverse rates
| Step | Reverse | Reverse + Karivdis |
|---|---|---|
| +1 → +2 | 100% | 0% |
| +2 → +3 | 30% | 0% |
| +3 → +4 | 30% | 0% |
| +4 → +5 | 30% | 0% |
| +5 → +6 | 30% | 35% |
| +6 → +7 | 10% | 15% |
| +7 → +8 | 10% | 15% |
| +8 → +9 | 10% | 15% |
| +9 → +10 | 10% | 15% |
| +10 → +11 | 5% | 10% |
| +11 → +12 | 0% | 0% |
The Reverse side ends at +11. Above +11 is zero in the table.
Same step, four different methods
| Method | +7 → +8 | +8 → +9 | +8 → +9 average items |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUS | 10% | 1% | 100 |
| BUS + Trina | 30% | 2% | 50 |
| Reverse | 10% | 10% | 10 |
| Reverse + Karivdis | 15% | 15% | 6.7 |
This is where Reverse really pays. The step that is 1% with BUS is 10% in Reverse, 15% with Karivdis.
Where you should stop
- For an item you'll use daily, +7 is a reasonable stop. Getting there takes 8 items on average, 3 with Trina.
- If you're aiming for +8, take a single step from +7, 10%. Add Trina and it's 30%.
- Don't aim for +9 with BUS. An item sitting at +7 has a 0.1% chance of reaching +9, 1,000 items on average.
- If you seriously want +9 and above, convert to Reverse at +7. The same step there rolls at a 10× higher rate.
- On the Reverse side +7 to +9 is 1%, 2.25% with Karivdis. Compare with 0.1% on BUS.